Leading Light Energy

an energy blog by Terry M. Jarrett

Author Archives: Terry M. Jarrett

A warming world needs nuclear power

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Bloomberg carries an opinion piece which highlights the need for nuclear power:

Nuclear accounts for almost 60 percent of emissions-free power in the U.S., and when plants shut down, utilities mostly turn to fossil fuels to fill the void. More than one-third of the country’s plants, representing 22 percent of total nuclear capacity, are either scheduled to close or at risk of closure within the next five to 10 years, said a new UCS study. This could lead to a 4 percent to 6 percent increase in carbon emissions from the power sector by 2035.

Nuclear power is expensive, and it’s under pressure from market forces – notably, the falling price of solar and wind power.

Then why not simply let it lose market share to those safe, clean fuels? Because wind and solar can’t immediately fill the gap. They still account for less than 8 percent of energy produced in the U.S. (nuclear is 20 percent). It’s crucial that their growth displaces coal and natural gas, not nuclear.

In principle, a carbon tax is the best way to keep nuclear power competitive.

As the voters of Washington state have again demonstrated, however, taxes on fuel remain prohibitively unpopular. (French President Emmanuel Macron has just made the same discovery.) Nonetheless, states can reward nuclear power’s climate advantage in other ways – by giving zero-emissions credits for nuclear power, as Illinois, New York and New Jersey have done, or by revising their energy portfolio standards to stop utilities’ switching from nuclear to fossil fuels.

If enough states take such measures, old plants could be kept running until the next generation of nuclear plants is ready. Building these might also require subsidy – for example, in the form of investment tax credits.

These and other options need to be on the table as the world wakes up to the role nuclear power must play in avoiding a climate catastrophe.

This highlights the need for an all of the above strategy for generating electricity. All fuel sources have pros and cons, but finding the right mix is essential for maintaining reliable and affordable energy.

 

In The News Today….1.15.19

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In the news today and from the weekend…

Coal:

  • The Hill carries an op-ed from Jason Hayes, director of environmental policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Hayes writes today’s coal industry is going to need wider use of new technologies, new markets, and a far better response to anti-coal messaging to begin rebuilding the American coal fleet.
  • POLITICO Pro reports a federal judge Monday said he will not grant EPA’s request to pause a lawsuit over the agency’s decision last year to give Oklahoma control over its coal ash permitting program.
  • Bloomberg reports electric cars are better for the environment than traditional gasoline models, and that benefit will grow as power generators shift away from coal.

Congress:

  • E&E Daily reports the House is set to vote this week on a series of bills related to energy policy, cybersecurity and federal agencies.
  • E&E Daily reports Sen. Elizabeth Warren signed the “No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge” over the weekend, and at least three other potential 2020 candidates — Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and Sen. Bernie Sanders — have also sworn off fossil fuel campaign dollars.

Electricity Generation and the Reliability Factor

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When I’m asked about the pros and cons of different sources of electricity generation, I often emphasize the importance of reliability. America’s daily baseload power needs are enormous, and when it comes to vital infrastructure such as water treatment, hospitals, and public transit, there’s little room for error when making sure that electricity keeps reaching where it’s needed, day in and day out.

 

A good way to look at this is the real-time data that’s publicly available for some of the nation’s largest utilities. For example, The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO)—which oversees 200,000 megawatts of power-generation across 15 U.S. states—publishes a continuously updated chart of the ‘Fuel Mix’ for its overall power generation.

 

We can glean some interesting items from MISO’s fuel chart.

 

For starters, coal continues to be the dominant electricity producer for their mix—averaging about 55 percent of total power generation. Natural gas comes in second at around 17 percent, with nuclear third at about 16 percent.

 

The remainder of MISO’s energy portfolio comes from wind generation, plus a small sliver of miscellaneous sources.

 

What’s interesting are the fluctuations in the overall mix. For example, on Thursday, November 29—a cold day for much of the central United States—MISO’s fuel mix showed that wind generation remained at around 2 percent of total generation. This was unfortunate, since the weather was particularly cold—and families were turning up their thermostats to stay warm. But there simply wasn’t much wind blowing throughout most of the day.

 

By contrast, a few days later, on Monday, December 3, the weather was milder, and wind generation across MISO’s grid was averaging roughly 8 percent of total generation. That’s quite a difference from four days prior.

 

The point is, while wind generation has some positives in terms of being a “free” source of power, it also has drawbacks. When MISO’s wind capacity declined to 2 percent of total output on November 29, coal and natural gas plants needed to ramp up in order to cover the difference. This generally isn’t a problem, since MISO maintains a sturdy fleet of both coal and gas plants that can run continuously.

 

But it illustrates a wider point. Renewables are inherently unpredictable—since wind turbines depend on a steady flow of wind, and solar panels require ample, direct sunlight. When the wind isn’t blowing, or the sun isn’t shining, another source of electricity generation is required to make up the difference. and that’s where coal, natural gas, and nuclear plants fill in the gaps.

 

For these reasons, an “all of the above” energy strategy makes sense, simply to ensure that there are always available means to produce the on-demand electricity that Americans need in order to maintain healthy, safe daily living.

Are Utilities to Blame for the Spike in Carbon Emissions?

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According to a piece in E&E News, The limitations of America’s reliance on switching from coal to natural gas to lower emissions came into focus in 2018. Here’s the conundrum:

Power companies’ reliance on gas is a double-edged sword for climate hawks. When a natural gas plant replaces a coal facility, there is a climate benefit. Gas plants emit about half of what’s puffed into the air by their coal counterparts. EIA estimates that coal-to-gas switching is responsible for two-thirds of power-sector emissions reductions between 2005 and 2017. Renewables account for the remaining third.

But when gas plants run harder to meet an increase in electricity demand, emissions go up.

That’s what happened in 2018, when a combination of weather events and a hot economy prompted the first increase in electricity demand in years. Power-sector emissions rose 1.9 percent as a result, as gas plants ran more to satisfy robust demand for electricity.

The “expert” relied on to explain this seems to fault utilities for this “problem”:

“This isn’t the huge transition that is necessary to meet the climate challenge, and I do think utilities are a big part of it,” said Leah Stokes, a professor who studies power-sector and political trends at the University of California, Santa Barbara. “It’s easier to build a natural gas plant, fits with business as usual, and they can ramp it on and off.”

Blaming the utilities is misplaced for several reasons. This is because utilities all across the United States are adding more renewables, and have been doing so for the past several years. Renewables’ share of U.S. energy consumption has now doubled since 2008, as coal’s share crashed in the same period from 48% to 30%.

But a bigger reason that utilities are not to blame is because their main responsibility is to provide reliable and affordable energy to their customers. The best way to do that at the present time is to use the old reliables–coal, natural gas, and nuclear.

We would be far better served to have an “all of the above” strategy when it comes to energy. We need all sources of generating electricity to ensure the we receive the reliable and affordable energy we need to heat and cool our homes, and power our businesses and industries. That includes the continued use of fossil fuels.

 

We Need a Recession to slow Global Warming! Huh??

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Talk about a “good news, bad news” scenario–I have some good news, and I have some bad news! The good news is that the economy is booming! The bad news is that all this economic growth is causing more global warming!

In “Economic expansion boosts carbon emissions, despite green-tech gains,” NBC News frames the problem this way:

No matter that coal-fired power plants went out of business in record numbers, or that Americans nearly doubled their purchases of electric cars. The U.S. increased its carbon dioxide emissions in 2018, and a large part of the reason was one normally cited as a bonus — substantial economic growth.

A booming American economy meant increased industrial production, more truck and air travel and more offices and other workplaces to heat — all combining, along with other factors, to create the second-largest annual increase in the key greenhouse gas emissions in more than two decades, according to new estimates from the Rhodium Group.

 The result is that — despite expansion of solar and wind power and some movement to alternative-fuel vehicles — the U.S. will have to do even more in the coming years to come close to meeting previous international commitments for greenhouse gas reductions.

Whatever, oh whatever, shall we do? Don’t worry–NBC News has the solution!

Experts say it may take a recession to reduce the gases that are warming the planet.

Huh? What would we do without “experts”? I can think of a more accurate word to describe them: idiots.

Manhattan Contrarian: Will Somebody Actually Start A Serious “Climate” Emissions-Reduction Program In 2019?

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Since I am snowed in today, I’ve taken the opportunity to catch up on some of my favorite blogs, one of which is the Manhattan Contrarian.

Francis Menton, in his post “Will Somebody Actually Start A Serious “Climate” Emissions-Reduction Program In 2019?” writes that while the U.S. debates a “Green New Deal” to ban fossil fuels, one country (or continent) after another is giving up on so-called “renewables” and carbon taxes and even the whole idea of emissions reductions, and going instead for some good old reliable coal: China, India, Africa, Japan, Australia, even Canada and Germany. And that doesn’t include the new Energy Plan from Poland, presented at the close of 2018, which promises to scrap all wind turbines by 2035.

It is highly recommended reading. Good stuff, as always!

WSJ: Russian Hackers Infiltrated the U.S. Power Grid

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Russian cyber operatives have been busy probing U.S. power grid vulnerabilities, according to an extensive report by the WSJ.

The WSJ reports that hackers used several methods to infiltrate the grid, including planting malware on sites of online publications frequently read by utility engineers to gain access to their computers. Russian cyber operatives pretending to be job seekers sent out fake résumés with tainted attachments. Once they had computer-network credentials, they slipped through hidden portals used by utility technicians, in some cases getting into computer systems that monitor and control electricity flows.

Some experts believe two dozen or more utilities were breached.

The full WSJ article (behind paywall) can be accessed here.

Cyber Security risks to our electric grid are very real, and thanks to the WSJ for shining the light on the problem.

Woodward: Ocasio-Cortez’s ‘Green New Deal’ a joke?

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Good Saturday morning!

Here where I live in mid-Missouri, there is over a foot of snow on the ground. Global warming? Not much evidence of that here.

Meanwhile, Chris Woodward has quoted me in his excellent One News Now article which points out the problems with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s green new deal proposal. Here’s the excerpt:

Former Missouri Public Service Commission and energy blogger Terry Jarrett is highly skeptical of the plan.

“I would say it’s downright impossible,” argued Jarrett, who is also an attorney. “To be able to completely do away with fossil fuels in the next 12 years – what that would mean for the economy and our way of life would … just be devastating.”

He explained his reasoning further.

“To basically shut down all coal plants, all natural gas plants, do away with oil and gasoline – we’re talking trillions of dollars – that would have to be spent to make this 12-year switch,” he insisted. “Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) estimated that just by doing away with the fossil fuels for generating electricity and replacing it with wind and solar and battery storage technologies would be about $2.5 trillion over a 12-year period, and that really doesn’t take into account all of the other fossil fuels that we use for transportation in cars and trucks and farming.”

 

Opinion: America stills needs coal in 2019

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The Scranton Times Tribune (PA), Idaho State Journal (ID), Deseret News (UT), The Detroit News (MI), and the Johnstown Tribune Democrat (PA) carry my previously published piece, in which I write that policymakers must consider how much more coal-fired power can realistically be retired before the loss of so much around-the-clock, baseload power threatens the reliability of America’s overall electric grid.

In The News Today….1.11.19

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In the news today…

 

Coal:

  • E&E Greenwire reports Wyoming should continue to fight to enable more U.S. coal exports overseas, the state’s new governor said in a state of the state speech yesterday that also called for more spending restraint and better returns on state reserve funds.
  • The Virginian-Pilot reports all three coal terminals in Hampton Roads saw double-digit increases in exports last year when compared to 2017, and the port exported nearly twice as many tons as two years ago.

Energy:

  • Axios reports wind energy will be the largest source of new power capacity additions this year, while coal-fired power will keep fading but the losses will slow, according to an EIA snapshot yesterday.

World News:

  • Axios reports China is poised to gain global leverage with its dominance in clean-energy technologies, while poorer, fossil fuel-dependent nations like Libya will likely be on the losing end in the world’s shift to cleaner energy.
  • Forbes reports China has said it will not approve wind and solar power projects unless they can compete with coal power prices.

In The News Today….1.10.19

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In the news today….

EPA:

  • Energy News Network reports a Trump administration proposal to change how costs and benefits are calculated for federal mercury emissions rules could make them more vulnerable to a legal challenge. Hal Quinn is quoted.
  • POLITICO Pro reports President Trump has nominated acting EPA chief Andrew Wheeler to be the full-time administrator of the agency.

Coal:

  • The Wall Street Journal reports that last summer, Northern Indiana Public Service Co. NI -0.08% planned to retire two of its five remaining coal-fired power plants by 2023. Now, it plans to do away with all of them over the next decade, and buy more solar and wind power instead.
  • Argus reports the DOE has increased the funding it may provide for university research into scientific challenges and technology issues associated with improving performance of fossil fuel turbines.

Natural Resources:

  • E&E Daily reports lawmakers introduced a range of natural resources bills this week dealing with topics from agency transparency to restoration of lands and waters affected by coal mining.

Lights out: Can the U.S. survive a ‘catastrophic’ power outage?

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While most of the policy debate regarding the electric grid revolves around climate change and increased use of renewable energy, there is another important aspect of grid reliability–namely, the risks of catastrophic power outages due to natural disasters, cyber or physical attacks, or or an electromagnetic event. Any such event could cause a long-term outage. Security Boulevard, by way of Real Clear Energy, carries a thoughtful piece on whether the United States could survive such a catastrophic event. Following is the conclusion:

Through interviews with leaders in the utility industry and other related experts, the report found that existing plans to restore power were inadequate to deal with a catastrophic power outage.

The NIAC concluded that considerable public and private action is required to mitigate the risks associated with any such outage. Such a power outage could cause cascading failures in other essential services including water and wastewater management, communications, transportation, healthcare, and financial services — all of which are critical to public health and safety and our national and economic security.

The report concluded that the U.S. should approach the challenge in two predominate themes. The first is to “design a national approach to prepare for, respond to, and recover from catastrophic power outages that provides the federal guidance, resources, and incentives needed to take action across all levels of government and industry and down to communities and individuals.”

The second was to improve the nation’s understanding of how cascading failures across critical infrastructure will affect restoration and survival.

Scary stuff, but it is something we must face and address.

Statepowerproject.org Update: Petition to Review Oregon Low-Carbon Fuel Standard Decision at SCOTUS

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This is from an email I received from Ari Peskoe, Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School:

Earlier this week, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), a trade association, filed a petition seeking Supreme Court review of a Ninth Circuit decision addressing Oregon’s Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). Petitioners argue that the state policy violates the dormant Commerce Clause by regulating out-of-state conduct (extraterritorially) and discriminating against out-of-state producers. In 2014, the Supreme Court declined to review a Ninth Circuit decision upholding California’s LCFS. AFPM’s petition makes essentially the same arguments as those made in the rejected 2014 petition.  

Oregon’s LCFS sets carbon-intensity targets for fuels imported into or produced in Oregon. State regulators assign carbon intensity values to various fuels based on extraction, production, and transportation methods. Each entity that produces fuel in Oregon or imports fuel into the state must meet average carbon intensity limits across all of its products. It can demonstrate compliance by producing or importing only fuels that meet the standard, by producing or importing fuels that meet the standard in aggregate, or by purchasing credits generated by fuels below the standard to reduce the average intensity of its products.

Relying on the Ninth Circuit’s decision upholding California’s nearly identical LCFS, a district court dismissed AFPM’s 2015 complaint that claimed the policy violates the dormant Commerce Clause. In September, the Ninth Circuit affirmed the dismissal. AFPM’s petition argues that the Ninth Circuit’s opinion is at odds with decisions of other federal appeals courts and contrary to Supreme Court precedent.

With regard to extraterritoriality, AFPM portrays the state’s carbon-intensity analysis as Oregon’s effort to “control conduct” in other states by restricting imports into Oregon. According to the petition, the Ninth Circuit’s holding that Oregon’s regulation is not extraterritorial because it only applies to fuels sold in Oregon contradicts recent decisions by the Fourth and Seventh Circuits and earlier decisions cited in the rejected 2014 petition by the First and Seventh Circuit. AFPM also highlights the 10th Circuit’s decision written by Justice Gorsuch holding Colorado’s RPS does not regulate extraterritorially and the Eighth Circuit’s review of a lower court decision holding a Minnesota law restricting coal-power imports did violate the dormant Commerce Clause as evidence that other circuits are “in need of this Court’s guidance” on extraterritoriality.

AFPM also argues that the Ninth Circuit’s failure to apply strict scrutiny to the LCFS contradicts decisions in nearly every circuit. Relying on its decision about California’s LCFS, the Ninth Circuit found that although Oregon’s carbon-intensity scores disadvantage some out-of-state fuels, the LCFS does not discriminate under dormant Commerce Clause doctrine because geography is “not the basis for any differential treatment.” AFPM counters that the policy assigns less favorable scores to Midwest corn ethanol than to Oregon corn ethanol and is therefore facially discriminatory. Courts reviewing facially discriminatory policies, according to AFPM, must find the policy unconstitutional unless the state can demonstrate that the law has a non-protectionist purpose and there is no less-discriminatory means for achieving that purpose.

AFPM’s petition is available at https://statepowerproject.org/oregon/.

In the News Today….1.9.19

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In the news today…

Coal:

  • The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. carbon emissions rose 3.4% in 2018, after three years of declines, as the effects of a strong economy outstripped a sharp decline in the number of power plants burning coal to generate electricity.
  • The Washington Post reports that Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin is asking the Tennessee Valley Authority not to close the remaining coal-fired unit at its Paradise electricity plant.
  • Utility Dive reports that FERC Commissioner Bernard McNamee will not recuse himself from FERC’s grid resilience proceeding, he said in a Monday letter to Senate Democrats, unless it comes to “closely resemble” the debate over the coal and nuclear bailout proposal he helped craft at the Department of Energy.
  • Vox and Forbes report new research shows Colorado could save $2.5 billion by replacing aging coal generation with clean energy including wind, solar, energy storage, and natural gas.

Fossil Fuels:

  • E&E Greenwire reports Governor Tom Wolf (D) is stepping up the fight against climate change and setting targets to slash Pennsylvania’s greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decades in a heavily populated and fossil-fuel-rich state.
  • POLITICO Pro reports House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) on Tuesday rejected the call for Democratic energy committee members to shun contributions from fossil fuel companies and other industries as too extreme.

Some Things to Do If You’re Really Worried about Global Warming

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A friend sent me this amusing piece of satire, enjoy!

Some Things to Do If You’re Really Worried about Global Warming.

If you believe that global warming is specifically a man-made problem, and that urgent action must be taken, then it’s time for you to get serious. It’s time for you to be consistent in your words and deeds.

  1. No more overseas vacations. Jet planes burn a lot of fuel when flying across the ocean. Instead, take a vacation simply by staying home.
  2. Stop texting on your cell phone. The data centers that transmit digital information for cell phones and the Internet require tremendous amounts of energy. In 2015, it was estimated that data centers are responsible for as much carbon dioxide emissions as the global airline industry.
  3. Switch off your house’s air conditioner. It may be hot and muggy in the summer, but you can manage. Air conditioning systems draw a tremendous amount of electricity. Shut off your air conditioner, open all you windows, and enjoy the fresh air.
  4. Switch off your car’s air conditioner. Running a car’s air conditioner requires more work from a car’s engine, which means burning more gasoline. Roll down the windows instead.
  5. Lower the thermostat in the winter. Heating a house requires a lot of energy, and that means burning natural gas or coal at the local power plant. Instead, bundle up and see how low you can comfortably set your thermostat.
  6. Watch as little TV as possible. There’s no urgent need to watch television. Read a book instead.
  7. Stop going to the movies. There’s no essential reason to drive downtown to the movie theater. Conserve fuel. Read a book instead.

These are just a few, simple steps that one can take to start living a life that requires less frivolous carbon-dioxide production. It’s meaningless to rail against climate “deniers” if you’re producing as much carbon dioxide in your daily life as they are.

In the News Today….1.8.19

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In the news today…

EPA:

·         POLITICO Pro reports the Trump administration has postponed its public hearing on its rewrite of the WOTUS rule and its formal publication in the Federal Register, thanks to the partial government shutdown.

·         Inside EPA reports Acting EPA Administrator Wheeler has pledged to review and in some cases revise key programs governing new and existing chemicals the agency is seeking to create under the reformed Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), commitments that helped win 11th-hour Senate confirmation for the agency toxics chief, Alexandra Dunn.

Coal:

·         E&E News PM reports a Navajo Nation energy company studying the purchase of a coal-fired plant on the reservation says it’s now looking into the mine that supplies it too. The energy company says it wants to keep the plant and Kayenta mine open for at least 10 more years.

·         Casper Star Tribune reports Wyoming’s largest utility, and owner of many of its coal-fired power plants, will delay an update to the depreciation rate of its assets as it studies the changing economics of coal.

 ·         CNN reports more coal-fired power plants have closed in Trump’s first two years in office then in Obama’s entire first term.

 ·         Washington Examiner reports U.S. coal exports surged last year in Honduras, which has been the target of barbs from the president related to immigration and border security.

Climate:

·         The New York Times reports U.S. carbon dioxide emissions increased by 3.4 percent last year – their highest increase in eight years, according to preliminary projections from the research firm Rhodium Group LLC using federal and industry data. The increase, the group said, was driven in part by the weather and from strong manufacturing output.

·         Axios reports the Copernicus Climate Service (C3S), an EU-funded program, has concluded that 2018 was Earth’s 4th-warmest year on record — with the past 4 years serving as the hottest years the planet has seen since instrument records began in 1880 (and likely well before that).

In the News Today….1.7.19

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In the news today and from the weekend…

Energy:

  • Axios reporter Amy Harder looks at nine energy and climate issues to watch in 2019.

Coal:

  • Washington Examiner reports the DOE released data on coal over the last two days that showed a pick-up in exports for fueling, not U.S., but foreign power plants, including those in climate change proponents France and Germany.
  • Argus reports coal-fired generation produced less electricity in the largest US grid than natural gas in 2018, the first time on record that gas superseded coal in the region for a full year.

Legislation:

  • WCYB reports Senators Mark Warner and Tim Kaine introduced the American Miners Act of 2019 on Friday to preserve pension and healthcare benefits for coal miners.

EPA:

  • Inside EPA reports EPA’s plan to scrap the Obama-era finding that the costs and benefits of the utility air toxics rule make the rule “appropriate and necessary” is spurring uncertainty on how the agency will count “co-benefits” that result from reductions in non-target pollutants to justify future rules’ costs because the plan downplays such benefits but does not prohibit their consideration.

World News:

  • Miami Herald reports Chancellor Angela Merkel plans to discuss efforts to wean the country off coal with senior officials this month.

In the News Today….1.3.19

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In the news today…

Coal:

  • Utility Dive reports Republican lawmakers and the federal government are continuing efforts to support the coal industry, evidenced by an increase in research funding opportunities and proposed legislation meant to benefit the fuel production and the possibility of future plants.
  • Argus reports Texas wind farms in areas with high wind potential could be paired with solar generation to increase the reliability of power production. The combination could allow the state to transition away from fossil fuel generation, the researchers say in a new report.
  • Deseret News reports an analysis by PacifiCorp shows 60 percent of its coal-fired power plant units are more costly to run than shutter, prompting the company to request additional time to review their potential operational life. The December request for a delay before the Public Service Commission involves the depreciation schedule for power plant units it operates in six states, including Utah.

Politics:

  • E&E Daily reports incoming House Energy and Commerce Chairman Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) and Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chairwoman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are hoping for progress this Congress on energy reform legislation.
  • CNBC reports House Democrats plan to hold hearings on the role industry insiders played in President Trump’s rollback of energy and environmental regulations.
  • E&E Daily reports the Senate last night approved a series of energy and environment nominees by voice vote in the final full day of the 115th Congress.

Power Grid:

  • Utility Dive covers the top 10 trends that will shape the electric power sector in 2019. From coal bailouts to batteries and wind and solar growth, Gavin Bade reports on the issues that will define the year to come.

World News:

  • Reuters reports renewables overtook coal as Germany’s main source of energy for the first time last year, accounting for just over 40 percent of electricity production, research showed on Thursday.